Wednesday Bolts - 10.22.08

Don't forget to go vote for your favorite Thunder blog.

• ESPN.com's massive team preview is up for both the Western and Eastern conferences. Be sure to check out point No. 6 on the Thunder page. Booyah.
  

• Please read this wonderful season preview from Pro Basketball News. It's perfectly written and it really expresses everything I've ever tried to say concerning the Sonics evolution into the Thunder. "Set aside how screwed the people in Seattle feel long enough to realize that fans in Oklahoma City have nothing to do with said screwing. All they did was support New Orleans' team impressively enough to wind up inheriting their own when local businessman Clay Bennett essentially gifts it to them ... Sentimentality is all that makes the situation different. Seattle just had a team ripped away from it. Oklahoma City is perceived as a pack of poachers. The wound is too fresh right now to see it at face value. That knowledge won't stop many of you from casting an evil eye towards the league's newest fan base, anyway." Amen. Amen. We just love our new team. Don't hate us.

• Big surprise here, the Thunder waived Chris Alexander and Derrick Byers.

• The Ankle Sprain Fairy has struck again. Doesn't seem to serious with the way Coach Peej was talking and the fact that Kevin Durant "may" miss the last two preseason games.

• And here's some *awesome breakdown of the injuries by Darnell Mayberry and some other guy. Could NewsOK possibly put anyone more awkward on camera? That's not a challenge NewsOK.
  

• Here's a look at OKC's season tickets which started arriving on folk's doorsteps yesterday. (Thanks to artbypaul from OKCThunderFans.com, click to make bigger.) Where does Paul live? In a Saudi Arabian castle?

The World's official OKC Thunder preview

This is our installment in Jeff Clark's (CelticsBlog.com) amazing series of NBA blogger previews.

Last Years Record: 20-62
Key Losses: Fransisco Elson (signed with Bucks), Luke Ridnour and Adrian Griffin (trade with Bucks/Cavs), Donyell Marshall (waived)
Key Additions: Joe Smith and Desmond Mason (trade with Bucks/Cavs), Russell Westbrook (drafted)

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?

Other than drafting Russell Westbrook at No. 4, the signing of Joe Smith is a pretty big deal. Smith has almost always played on a contender and should be the "P.J. Brown" to this team's young players. Desmond Mason was picked up in a three-way deal and he should be a nice safety cushion in case Jeff Green falls on his face this year and doesn't appear to be working out.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

Youth and exuberance. I highly doubt any team will play harder night in and night out than the Thunder this season. This team is thirsty for wins. They want it. But right now they're too young and too raw to get it done. But with the foundation GM Sam Presti has built, it will come. Defensively, they stunk last year (allowed 106 ppg) but should improve because of hustle and effort and also because there's some real length and athleticism there. And that's been one of coach P.J. Carlesimo's main focuses this preseason.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Kind of like explosions in a Michael Bay flick, this is getting a little redundant. The answer: no consistent outside shooter and no consistent low-post scorer. Johan Petro has played decent in the preseason and everyone is waiting for Robert Swift's upside to become a reality (or for him to be healthy), but for now, the Thunder stinks in the post. And Damien Wilkins is not the answer from the outside.

4. What are the goals for this team?

To go .500 at home. Most people are picking them to finish last in not only the West, but the entire NBA. Most experts don't think they'll improve on their 20 wins from last year. But by playing good .500 ball at the Ford Center this year, they'll be assured of 20 wins right there and then if they play decently on the road, they could be looking at a 30 win year, which would be a huge, huge boost. Look, no one gave the 2005 Hornets a prayer to compete. They won 18 games the year before and appeared to have gotten worse. But behind a bump from a rabid city and a really, really good point guard, the team challenged for a playoff spot. There's no reason the Thunder can't aspire to do the same. (Key word: aspire. Look it up.)

5. Will the current roster resemble the roster at season's end?

You know Sam Presti probably worked his magic again by acquiring Joe Smith. Smith will be a great bargaining tool at the trade deadline and OKC will probably pull a few draft picks from a contending team that needs a warm body in the post. (Atlanta I’m talking to you and we’ll take that unconditional 2010 pick, thank you.) But Smith will serve his purpose here. He helps the Thunder not be totally incompetent in the post and should guide along Johan Petro and Bob Swift. Heck, he could probably show Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison a thing or two. Come 2010, this team should be a serious contender. Presti can either hand pick all the top talent from college or use the bevy of picks as trade leverage and land a couple veteran pieces. There’s going to be so much cap room to work with it’s not even funny and some pretty good free agents are hitting the market soon. And it’s not like there aren’t good pieces in place already. Kevin Durant will be a top five scorer for the rest of his career and once Jeff Green “gets it” he could turn it on and be very Scottie Pippin-ish (not that Durant is MJ, let's be clear there). Russell Westbrook should be able to lock down any guard and by all appearances, may turn into a dang nice player. And Serge Ibaka. Good heavens, Sergeant Slam (yeah, that’s my nickname for him, get it?) He’s more raw than sushi, but boy, he is a talent. He has dunking machine written all over him.

Predicted Record: 30-52,fourth in the Northwest, 13th in the West.

Thunder and Lightning Round

There's some downtime between games and we're all real itchy for the real season to get underway. So first of all, Joe over at thunderguru.com rounded up us Thunderbloggers and had us do a little survey. If you want to see what us smarties predicted, click HERE. But with this little lull, I'm going to use my ridiculous, expansive knowledge of Thunder basketball to answer a few questions that I know are keeping you up at night. Since I don't have enough dedicated readers to actually produce a "mailbag" type thing, I'll make one up on my own.

Where are the points going to come from?
The points will come from three people, mainly - Kevin Durant, Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison with a little here and there from Earl Watson, Damien Wilkins, Jeff Green and Desmond Mason. And maybe a little icing from Russell Westbrook if he starts to get the hang of NBA basketball. Scoring has been an issue in the preseason, but I'd expect it to improve a little during the regular season as Durant gets more in the flow and Wilcox and Collison see more minutes.

What will it take for the Thunder to get near .500?
Someone to surprise and Kevin Durant to rise into the NBA elite. Look, Cleveland had to start somewhere with LeBron James. As he became a superstar, so the team improved. Nothing says that KD can't emerge this season into a prime player and the Thunder starts shocking people. Remember, the Hornets' 2005 roster looked much worse than this roster (I mean come on, they had Arvydas Macijauskas, Moochie Norris and Kirk Snyder playing significant minutes) and those Hornets won 38 games.

Is there any shot we'll see a 2005 type Hornets run because of the OKC bump?
I say yes because I believe in the Bump. But by run, I mean "exceed expectations." Home court advantage is huge and I think every player will feel it each time they step on the floor at the Ford. They know the excitement in the City so they'll probably play just that much harder for us. They want to win. And more importantly, I think they want to win for us.

What's more important for this team to improve: offense or defense?
Defense, for the simple reason that defense is what Sam Presti is building the team around. He's going with the Spur model and that model says defense wins games. There's already some solid scorers on the team even though the offense has looked inept at times during the preseason. But keeping the ball out of the basket is more important than putting it in, especially when you have difficulty with the latter.

What would be better: the Thunder to win 35 games and show serious improvement but fall well short of the playoffs, or win 18 games and land the No. 1 pick in next year's draft?
As I wrote that question, I had my answer in mind. But as I re-read it to check for errors, I'm having a little trouble deciding. Both look extremely good in one way, but extremely bad in another way. It's like a question my old college roomie posed to me once: You're in a tank, tied down and can't move with puke filled up to your bottom lip. Someone is about to throw a pile of crap in your face. Do you duck your head into the barf and dodge the poo or take the dungaree right in the kisser? There's really no right answer. Anyway, with this question, I settled with "get the No. 1 pick" because I would dance naked on top of Leadership Square wearing cowboy boots and a ribbon in my hair if OKC landed Blake Griffin next year, but I've changed my mind to "win 35 games."

The reasoning: Because that means the youngsters made serious improvement and that's better than getting another high pick. Presti already has an army of draft picks lined up and he'll probably lock away another couple before the end of the year, so it really isn't that big of a deal. But if OKC won 35, Russell Westbrook will have had to evolve into a darn nice guard and more importantly, Jeff Green will have had to made a giant leap. And KD will likely have upped his averaged and played more efficiently.

Will the Thunder roster look the same at the end of the season as it does today?
No chance. Sam Presti wheels and deals more than a Wall Street day trader. But for Presti, times aren't nearly as tough right now (or are they?). Joe Smith, Earl Watson, Chris Wilcox and Desmond Mason could all be shopped to a contender later on in the season if some other GM dangles some draft picks in front of Slick Sammy. We all know he eats those draft picks up like Rosanne at an ice cream buffett.

By the end of the season, will the league and the general public respect the OKC franchise?
Tough to say. Right now, OKC is the punching bag for every blogger, journalist and TV dude out there. They can't start a sentence that contains the words, "Oklahoma" "City" or "Thunder" without snickering about the colors, the logo, the jerseys, Clay Bennett or the name. And that's just the way it's going to be for a while - sadly. But if OKC starts putting together a serious franchise and has the look of a competitve team by year's end, people will stop focusing on the negatives and start talking about what's been happening on the floor - not off it.

Will Kevin Durant be an All-Star?
Probably not. There's so many good twos and threes in the West that it will be hard to outshine them; especially playing on a subpar squad. He'd have to average 25 or 26 to catch anyone's eye.

Will Russell Westbrook overtake Earl Watson as the starter by the break?
This is my Vegas "Lock-O-the-Week." Lock it up. Westbrook is the future of this franchise and Watson is some contender's solid backup point guard. If OKC falls ten below .500 quickly out of the gates, Sammy and Coach Peej will jump ship and start looking toward the future - which is bright with Westbrook, Jeff Green and KD.

Who is going to win the Thunder "David West Award" for "Who saw that coming?"
How about Chris Wilcox? He's only 26 and has as much athleticism as any four in the league. If I could explain to you why a guy with his ability is a career 9.6 ppg/5.5 rpg guy, my name would be John Hollinger and I'd actually be making money for all this pointless writing. Before West's 2005 season, he averaged 5.0 ppg and 4.2 rpg. Then in '05 he jumped to 17.1 and 7.4. One big reason? His minutes almost tripled. The same issue has plagued Wilcox. He's never averaged more than 30 minutes a game, but as a pillar to this team's "success" he should see more time and maybe put up bigger numbers. Last year, Wilcox showed a little life averaging 13.4 ppg and 7.0 rpg. If he bumps those up to 17 ppg and 10 rpg, he could be what pushes OKC into that "surprise team" catagory. And, like I've said before, this is a contract year for him and money talks - and makes you play harder.

What are the main missing pieces?
We've been over this before, but quickly: a consistent outside shooter, a big man that can score and a point guard that distrubutes and manages the game.

Who needs to go?
Time to throw up the "peace out" to Watson and Joe Smith. There's a serious youth movement in OKC and those two guys are just holding us back. They'll serve their purpose for this season (or maybe half of it) but by year's end, OKC will be looking at bringing in new guys and drafting even younger ones. Watson and Smith will provide some nice veteran leadership to this group for now, but they won't be here next year.

If the team really, really stinks, will the Ford Center still be full by seasons end?
Yes. No doubt about it. Yes. OKC will be known for having the best fans in the league within ten years. Mark it down.

Thursday Bolts

• Another team preview from The Scores Report: "For this season? Dire. For the future? Reasonably bright. Durant looks like a future franchise player, and while Jeff Green struggled in his rookie season, the team has all the ingredients for a turnaround in the next 2-3 years. They have a young core, a ton of draft picks, and oodles of cap space to work with. The upside is that they’ll be playing in front of the patient Oklahoma City fans who will be grateful to have a NBA team in town, even if the horribly-named Thunder don’t win very many games."

• HoopsWorld on Russell Westbrook: "What a difference a year makes. Oklahoma City Thunder first-round draft pick Russell Westbrook is the proliferation of that statement, and if the trend continues, he will provide the Thunder with a bolt of lightning sooner rather than later."

• Stat geek gone wild: "I am going to warm up the Thunderguru readers to the concept of Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating and Pace. If you’ve been a reader, you know that I use these numbers in my Roster breakdowns to help you see how the team performs when a given player is on/off the court. These numbers paint a much clearer picture of what’s going on with your team when you try and draw comparisons. It misses the point if you just talk about points per game, or points allowed per game, or to say a team plays “fast” or “slow”."

• D.J. White's surgery was a success: Team physicians will perform the second phase of the surgery, mend ing the jaw with a bone graft taken from White’s hip, in approximately six weeks.

• Thunder notebook; defensive improvement showing: "We know we have a lot of work to do, but we’ve made a lot of progress defensively,” coach P.J. Carlesimo said. "At times, we look like a good defensive team. We certainly don’t look like a good offensive team. We don’t get into our sets. We don’t do a good job with shot selection. A lot of that is me, because we emphasized defense.”

• Carrie Coppernoll on the excitement of 'watching the Thunder roll': "The song "Thunderstruck” by AC/DC needs more play. As I’ve said before, you can never have too much of that." Heavens no. It's already been pounded into our heads enough. I was walking on campus this morning and passed a guy wearing a Thunder hat and I kid you not, in my head without thinking (that really doesn't make sense does it?) I went "THUHNDA! Uh-huh-huh-huh-huh-huh-uh." That's not good. Less Thunderstruck please. More Never Been to Spain.

• And a fun video from preseason opening night. A Fan slam dunk contest! And it went as expected. A possible torn ACL, a belly flop face plant and a potentially gay cowboy galloping his way around the hardwood. Good idea, management. I hope they all signed waivers.
  

Hollinger forecasts Thunder

ESPN.com's stat wizard, John Hollinger has his Western Conference preview up and within, he forecasts the Thunder's immediate future. His breakdown of the team is amazing and he's spot on with what needs to improve most - outside shooting. I've got a little something coming up in the next few days that highlights this stat, but in wins, OKC shot almost 12 percent higher from downtown than in losses last year.

They made on average two more three's per win than in losses. That's pretty telling, especially considering they lost 14 games last season by six points or less. Could've really used those two more threes (3+3+=6). That would have made the team 34-48 instead of 20-62.

Hollinger: "It's hard to see it now, but the Thunder (thwack) have as bright a future as any team in the league. Unencumbered by bad contracts and laden with draft choices, they are going to improve with remarkable speed from here on out. But in 2007-08, they are going to take more lumps. In order to set up their future, they're operating as a glorified expansion team; fortunately for them, the folks in Oklahoma are likely to fill the arena every night anyway to welcome the state's first major league pro sports team ... That may give the Okies enough of a home-court advantage to steal a few extra wins, especially since this team is going to play hard. They did last season even while getting their brains beat in, and with all the hustling defensive types they've acquired in the past two drafts, they should only redouble their efforts. But enthusiasm can carry them only so far given the absence of talent. Durant may bust out with a big season, and the other youngsters will have their moments here and there. But by any name, this team might not win more games than last season."

He has the team going 20-62 all over again, finishing last in the Northwest Division and last in the Western Conference.

But he does acknowledge the Oklahoma City Bump. So yeah, we've got that going for us.