Kevin Pelton on the education of Kid Delicious

I know this was included in today's Bolts, but this is just too good to not put a neon sign on. Pelton wrote and awesome feature about the evolution of Kevin Durant. Just read the whole thing. It's wonderful. Pelton says what we've all seen: Though P.J. Carlesimo and Scott Brooks both have the same 1-12 record, there's a ton of differences between the results of the two.

I've been talking about the improvement of the team, and while it hasn't done much in the win-loss area, the team has gotten better. It's undeniable. Pelton of Basketball Prospectus puts together some awesome numbers and breaks down the difference between the two coaches - most notably, the way the Thunder's stud has performed under the two.

Check this little diddy out:

Coach       Pace   OffRat   DefRat    Diff   ExpW
Carlesimo   94.6     93.4    107.7   -12.3    1.2
Brooks      91.0    106.8    116.4   - 7.5    3.3

"Despite the record, it's easy to see that Oklahoma City has played better with Brooks at the helm. Their point differential is still bad, but at least respectable. On average, a team with the Thunder's -7.5 differential under Brooks would have won about three out of 13 games. It's easy to see where those wins could have come; within Brooks' first week on the job, Oklahoma City had lost a pair of home games by a combined three points on last-second shots. The team is also competing on a nightly basis: only one of Brooks' 12 losses has come by more than 12 points."

So there's a few positives. I don't think it's outlandish to say that if Brooks were at the helm from the beginning of the season, OKC would have at least two to three more wins than it has now and a 6-18 record really wouldn't be out of the question. But as much as the offense and scoring has improved, the defense has regressed. But it's not all that bad of a tradeoff, considering where OKC was heading on the offensive end under Carlesimo.

"Under Carlesimo, the Thunder was threatening all sorts of league records for offensive futility. That has changed under Brooks, and impressively so. Actually, Oklahoma City's 106.8 Offensive Rating over the last 13 games is not far off of league average for the season (108.0). The Thunder has been far more potent at late. The tradeoff has come at the defensive end, where an OKC squad that was reasonably competent early in the season has been porous since the coaching change. No team is allowing more points per 100 possessions than the Brooks Thunder, though again the league-wide shift inflates the magnitude of the change."

Pelton has Durant's numbers under P.J. and under Brooks:

Coach        2P%    3P%    eFG%   TS%  Usage    2A%    3A%   FTA%    TO%
Carlesimo   .447   .438   .462   .513   .294   .712   .055   .088   .145
Brooks      .476   .500   .532   .592   .271   .613   .156   .124   .107

"Durant has improved virtually across the board. The most telling numbers might be the rightmost series, what I group as player tendencies--the percentage of possessions used on two-point and three-point attempts, free throws and turnovers. The two most efficient ways to score are on threes and at the free-throw line, and Durant has improved his sum of the two categories from 14.3 percent of his possessions under Carlesimo to 28.0 percent under Brooks. Quite simply, Durant is playing a different game. It's also a much better one, as reflected in the massive spikes in his effective field-goal percentage and his True Shooting Percentage. Durant has gone from a low-efficiency, volume shooter to the kind of lethal, highly-efficient scorer he was in his lone season at Texas. And he's done it while slashing his turnovers as well."

Pelton doesn't really buy into the whole, "Oh, well it's because KD moved to small forward" argument. He said after reviewing a Thunder game, he didn't really see any difference between the way Durant is being used between Carlesimo and Brooks. But he does see what I've said I see - improved spacing, freeing up KD's jumper and his driving ability.

Pelton wraps up with this:

"There's one final factor, one which should be disconcerting for the Thunder's opponents in the long term. Durant is still a babyfaced 20-year-old, and he's figuring out things all the time. The development of his game from where he was at the end of his rookie season was obvious against the Spurs. He has become much more accurate from the perimeter, most notably from three-point range. Because of his low percentage, Durant gradually phased the three out of his game near the end of last season, continuing that at the start of 2008-09. However, when Durant started making more of his infrequent attempts, he began ramping back up. Under Brooks, he has been hitting at an even 50 percent clip from long distance while making nearly two threes a game. A long 6'9" player who can gets shots off against any defender while hitting almost effortlessly from range? That's the Durant everyone envisioned coming out of the University of Texas, and slowly but surely--with the assistance of the Thunder's coaching change--we're starting to see it at the NBA level."

If that doesn't help sway you a little to the "optimist" category then there's not much hope for your sad self. I understand the reason to see the future being a tad dim, but there's a lot of upside for this group. And it all starts with Durant and so far, under Brooks, it's starting to look better.

Thursday Bolts - 12.18.08

• According to HoopsWorld, OKC is listening to offers for its big men: "The Oklahoma City Thunder have big men to spare, and are rumored to be listening to offers for Joe Smith, Chris Wilcox, and maybe even Nick Collison. The problem there is that the last thing they need is another small forward." - With Joe Smith not playing Tuesday night simply because there just wasn't room for him on the floor, I'm thinking something is going to happen soon.

• Rick Kamla of NBA.com says the coaching axe reminds him of a horror movie: "The Thunder's P.J. Carlesimo was the curmudgeon cop who harassed the young couple having fun in the back of the van. He gets ruthlessly rubbed out early in act one to establish that this boogeyman means business."

• I love these House of Hoops ads by Foot Locker. Here's the Kevin Durant one:

• Trying times for the young Thunder, writes Art Garcia: "The losses continue to mount and so does the frustration. On pace for the worst record in NBA history, with its head coach already fired, can anyone fault the Oklahoma City Thunder for sinking into the depths of basketball depression? Teams go through bad seasons. This is a disaster."

• Russell Westbrook stays in David Thorpe's top 10 rookies: "Being a phenomenal athlete alone is not enough to be a great defensive player in this league. It takes an active mind and a willingness to study. Consider this action by Westbrook in Dallas: He was defending the weakside, with J.J. Barea in his corner and Devean George on the wing, both behind the 3-point line, while Erick Dampier had the ball in the high post. Westbrook cut off the simple pass to George, going for a steal, and left open the corner pass to Barea. Did he do the right thing, considering the corner 3 is the easiest shot worth 3 points (based on distance)? Barea was shooting 40.9 percent from 3 going into the game, while George was at 35 percent. But it would be a mistake to just look at those numbers in the scouting report. Barea was just 1-for-4 from that left corner, up to that point, and George was 1-for-3 from the wing. Small sample sizes, yes, but nothing alarming enough to convince Westbrook to stay with Barea. So the risk was worth it. And even though Westbrook did not get the steal, Barea did miss the shot."

• Tom Ziller writes about Kevin Durant's silent breakthrough: "[Kevin] Pelton has all the numbers, and I encourage you to check them out. It's certainly a promising sign. From the cheap seats, Brooks' 1-12 record makes it seem like there's been no improvement. But quietly, Durant's becoming the player we'd dreamt of. And it's all because Brooks has put some other shooters on the floor with him."

• The Lost Ogle's gives us Peace, Love and Thunderstanding, moral victory edition: "I took a week off from writing a formulaic Peace, Love and Thunderstanding column and instead let Patrick post fifteen ideas for improving the Thunder experience. While that article was well received, the real reason for the delay was hope that the team might give me something to write about if I gave them an extra week to do something. Since the last true P, L & T ran, would anyone like to guess how many times the Oklahoma City Thunder have won a game? Here’s a hint, there have been seven games since that point."

Tuesday's Five

1. Currently, the Thunder are 1-11 under interim head coach Scott Brooks. Former head man P.J. Carlesimo was canned with a 1-12 record under his belt. Tonight's game against the Clippers just became huge!

2. During Oklahoma City's two game swing in Texas, The Thunder shot 48.8 percent from the field and 89.6 percent from the free throw line - 4.5 and 13.1 percentage points higher than their season average.

3. Since Brooks has taken over, Jeff Green is averaging 17.5 a game compared to 13.7 under Carlesimo. Kevin Durant is averaging 25.1 compared to 21.2. While scoring is up, defense is down.

4. OKC's next ten games are against opponents that are a combined 118-119. Five of those teams have winning records and are a combined 80-39 (Cleveland 20-4, Denver 17-7, Phoenix 15-10, Detroit 15-9, Atlanta 13-9). The remaining five are 38-80 (LA Clippers 6-17, Toronto 10-14, Washington 4-18, Golden State 7-18, New York 11-13).

5. Kevin Durant is leading the team in turnovers per game with 3.1 giveaways. My guess is over half those turns came because he was bumped on a drive and lost control. He has to get stronger with the ball and just stronger in general.

I'm back - what did I miss?

Home again after spending six days without a shower or a shave. I'm glad everyone had fun with the hunting stuff. It's no secret we hunt in Oklahoma - we're not ashamed of it. Some of us do that here. Just like millions of other people all over the rest of the country. I had a blast with the family and I can't wait until next year.

Let's see, Oklahoma City shocked the world and lost four more, including three of the four being by double-digits. Russell Westbrook had 11 assists against New Orleans last Saturday. The Thunder took Phoenix to the edge and lost by just one. Other than that, pretty much the same old, same old for this basketball season in the Sooner State.

What's that? Who got what?

Of course, the week I take off to play with fire, shoot guns and grunt like Tim Taylor, the Thunder goes off and makes the biggest news of this young basketball season. And I wasn't here to give everyone my incredibly insightful opinion. I know. I'm sorry.

Anyway, when I heard the news of P.J.'s firing, my first reaction was "Well that's not really fair." You give a guy apples and you expect him to make something other than applesauce. Kind of hard to turn a pair of Granny Smith's into a full on apple pie without the crust and the filling. Probably a bad analogy. You get the point.

But as I thought about what possibly led to the guillotine, last week's Clipper game really stood out to me. Because the cardinal sin was committed. The one thing that can get a coach capped, no questions asked, is a team quitting on him. And it was happening. Something wasn't getting through and as I said at some point last week, it looked like this team wasn't improving - it was regressing. Players were openly barking back at Carlesimo. Kevin Durant hollered back at Peej during the Houston game. And when you have a reputation like Carlesimo when it comes to player management (see: Sprewell, Latrell), things like that stick out like a diamond in a goat's rear.

P.J. didn't have players. It's not fair to blame the pile of losses on him. But it is fair to blame him for the way some of those losses happened. All of us spent some time second guessing him. That comes with the territory and with a 1-15 start. The 30 point deficits were disturbing. But let's be honest: It's unlikely Sam Presti and the organization had Carlesimo in its long-term plan. He was a good guy to bring in, help facilitate the move, be a good spokesman at the forefront, say all the right things and bide his time doing the best he could.

At this point, I don't know if I agree or disagree with it. As a casual observer a few years ago, I thought hiring Peej was a bad move. But I've never been a huge fan of midseason coaching moves unless something obviously warrants it. If he had lost the team, then yeah. And I'll say this: I think management might have had concerns about losing the city. I don't think it would have happened, but it's hard not to grumble over a 1-15 start. It's hard not to grumble at Carlesimo's less-than-accessible personality - especially when OKC had a guy like Byron Scott in the past. I think Presti and Clay Bennett may have thought something needed to be done to show this city the team was still serious about competing and that this season isn't a throwaway to get in the Blake Griffin lottery (seriously, just how ridiculous is he?).

The season presses on with Scott Brooks in the lead. Yeah, me too. Who? Scott Brooks has his chance to audition but I'd say it's unlikely he'll be in this same spot this time next year. The team has played a little better, but then took a big step back last night. The players seem to be a little rejuvenated and said all the right things with P.J.'s departure. Brooks does have the rock-bottom advantage - the Thunder really can't do much worse - unless they lose to Minnesota Friday. Come on Scotty, we're really banking on that one.