Preview week, day two: Five burning questions

What are the five can't-miss games of the season?
Simple - Opening Night against the Bucks (Oct. 29), New Orleans return to OKC (Nov.21), Cleveland (Dec. 21), Portland (Feb. 6) and the Lakers (Feb. 24). Why these games? Well Opening Night for obvious reasons - it's going to be an all-out celebration. New Orleans for obvious reasons too - everyone should be there to give Chris Paul and the Hornets a standing ovation when they are announced over the PA at the Ford Center. Cleveland because of the King. Portland because they are the Thunder's interim rival and also to finally see No. 1 and No. 2 square off as Greg Oden and Kevin Durant finally go head-to-head. And the Lakers because of Kobe Bryant - especially to see if defensive whiz Russell Westbrook gets the chance to guard him and to see if he can.

How many times a game will we hear "Thunderstruck?"
I'm guessing seven to start off. One during player introductions. Two during some random timeout in the first quarter. Three, when they run back out after halftime. Four, five and six at some point mid-game they'll play the guitar lick and the "Thunder" chanting part when we need a defensive stand and seven, after the game. Look, we got it at the logo unveiling and at the jersey unveiling. All signs point to the team being named after the song. If I were naming a team after my favorite tune, we'd be the Oklahoma City Ants because I dearly love Dave Matthews Band's Ants Marching. They shouldn't play it that many times, but I'm sure they will. Like I've written before, Never Been to Spain needs to replace at least one of those Thunderstrucks, but no one ever does what I want.

Will the Thunder improve on its win total from last year?
Yes. Absolutely. Mainly because it doesn't take a lot to improve on 20 wins. But this team is better. I don't care what John Hollinger or anyone says. Kevin Durant is better and Jeff Green *should be* better. They've added pieces like Westbrook and Desmond Mason. And there's the unreal excitement in their hometown. Last season was total uncertainty for the team and this year they'll be in a city that deeply loves everything about them, will pack the stands and will scream their hearts out for two hours every night for them. I think that should help produce a few wins.

What are the main missing pieces?
I'm not going to be one of those sarcastic jerks that does the whole, "Geez, where to begin?" things, but seriously, where to begin? The Thunder needs helps in a lot of areas, most notably outside shooting. Thunderguru Joe suggested trading for the Magic's J.J. Redick, but I'm thinking a more proven three-point threat is what they need. Jason Kapono, Luther Head, Brent Barry, Kyle Korver. But that's not what they'll be able to get. While obviously not all or really none of those guys are available, right now OKC will have to hope and pray someone becomes a threat (Kyle Weaver? Nah.) But you know, Kapono, Head and Korver had to start somewhere, right? The Magic are openly discussing dealing Redick, so maybe that's the gamble Sam Presti ought to make. Give up very little (another expiring contract!) and hope he turns out to be good. I don't think you can really go too wrong there. Earl Watson and Damien Wilkins aren't terrible from long distance, they're just not consistent. A second solid scorer would be the second main missing piece, but let's not try to build Rome in a day here.

If I am going to buy a jersey, whose should I get?
I've told friends I'm getting a custom Thunder Gary Payton #20 jersey or a Rain Man, Shawn Kemp #40 uni, but the price is pretty hefty. Maybe I could get a discount if I just got a Detlef Schrempf #11. Just one thing to make sure of: Do not, I repeat, DO NOT get a custom jersey with your name on the back. There is nothing worse than some fat guy sitting in Loud City with a No. 35 jersey with "Stravinski" strapped across the back of it. News flash: You don't play for the team. Kevin Durant does - so wear his jersey. Or get a throwback like me and support our rich history (zing).

Preview week, day one: A ridiculously meticulous, incoherent way to break down the team

First off, let's get something straight - I'm not John Hollinger. I wish I was. I dream about being able to crunch numbers and invent amazing, insightful stats like him. But I'm not. But I tried to come up with something to help me rank the value of each player on the team - what I'm calling Thunder Importance Rating. It's basically Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) but with a sick twist.

To make it short, PER is a player's per minute production. But what I'm trying to account for is how valuable that player was to the team's success.

Here's how I calculated each player's TIR: I tried to devise a formula that accounted for how important a player was in each of their respective team's wins last year. Obviously, when a team wins, its best players typically play better and that's why they win. I was going to add in what percentage of the team's rebounds, points and assists each player had on the season, but my brain was about to expode from all the number crunching I'd already done. Maybe next time.

So for instance, in wins last year, Kevin Durant played two more minutes per game, shot seven percent better from the field, averaged 1.4 more rebounds, .05 more assists and 4.6 more points per game. So adding all that together, Durant put together a score of 9.2. Since that doesn't totally account for the player's actual statistics, I then added Hollinger's PER number to it giving Durant an overall TIR of 25.02 which ranks the highest on the team, making him the most important player.

Now I know this formula may be bunk and it may be stupid, but I was looking for a way to figure out how much each player meant in each win. It also doesn't include defensive statistics/perception, which is really unfair for some players like Desmond Mason who play solid defense. I didn't include players like Bob Swift and Mohamed Sene because they really didn't play last year unless in mop up time. And other rooks that may not even make it like DeVon Hardin weren't included either.Now for players that are expected to improve greatly, then there's a bit of a curve. For instance, Jeff Green scored relatively low in both the winning formula and PER. But Green was just a rookie and is supposed to be much improved this year.

And there's four rookies that look to contribute. So there's no stats, no winning formula and no TIR for them. It's just a judgement call there.One surprising player that elevated his game in wins was guard Damien Wilkins. He played four and a half more minutes, shot 10 percent higher from the field, had 1.1 more rebounds and averaged 3.8 more points per game.

Three point shooting was an important aspect in Thunder victories last season. Durant shot 17 percent better, Earl Watson 23 percent better and Damien Wilkens 12 percent better from bonus ball territory. Wilkins also took one more three per game in Thunder wins. One interesting thing about Nick Collison - the former Kansas forward took one shot less per win, but also scored 2.3 more points per win, meaning Collison was much, much more efficient in victories.

PROJECTED STARTERS: (winning formula total, TIR)

PG Earl Watson - 23.70; 3
SG Kevin Durant - 25.02; 1
SF Desmond Mason - 13.59; 6
PF Nick Collison - 19.04; 4
C Chris Wilcox - 24.24; 2

BENCH
G Russell Westbrook - N/A; 8
G Kyle Weaver - N/A; 10
F Jeff Green - 11.62; 7
G Damien Wilkins - 22.26; 5
F Johan Petro - 00.05; 11
F Joe Smith - 16.29; 9
F D.J. White - N/A; 12

Again, rip it up if you want to, but it was only for fun and an attempt to decipher who means the most to the Thunder. Obviously, KD is by far the foundation, but who else needs to step up and play better to add on some wins? I think it's safe to say in order for the Thunder to increase on its 20 wins last year, Green needs to improve greatly. You know what you're going to get out of Mason - a solid 36 minutes or so with 10 points and six boards.

Also, someone really needs to surprise - whether that's Westbrook, Weaver or someone like Chris Wilcox (he's only 26) coming into his own, a player is going to have to elevate his game. Durant is clearly is most valuable player. No disrespect to Chris Wilcox, but anytime Chris Wilcox is your second most valuable player, your team is in store for a long year. Unless... like I said, someone elevates their game.

Looking at LeBron James - the league's leading scorer last year - his stats improved during wins, but not too much. He shot three percent higher from both the field and from three, four percent higher from the free throw line, had two more rebounds a game, 1.5 assists and averaged three more points per game. Kobe Bryant averaged three less minutes, shot seven percent higher from the field, took four less shots, averaged one more assist and three less points in the 57 Laker wins last year. That's pretty telling.

Understanding the important parts of each player's game to help the team win is vital. Absolutely vital. So it's safe to say the Thunder's success hinged a lot more on Durant's play than Cleveland's did with James. And that's not a good thing. A supporting cast is huge in the NBA, so if OKC is going to be successful, someone will have to elevate his game. Again, I'm talking to you Jeff Green.