Forecasting the Thunder - well, that depends on how you want to look at it

At this point, if you're a Thunder fan you can look at the current state of affairs two ways - glass half full or glass half empty with a hole in the bottom and leaking fast.

If you're an optimist (like me):
A. This is a young team. The average age is 24.7 years old and the average age of the starting five is 22.4. It's centered around three young players where the oldest is 22. Give that nucleus time to develop and you've got a strong team.

B. Oklahoma City has multiple expiring contracts. So while this current team is a miserable 2-24, it isn't likely this same group will be back next year. And this offseason, there will be some major cap room to play with. After the season, the Thunder will only have about $20 million in committed salary.

C. Just because someone is bad one year doesn't mean they will be bad again next year. Look at the Heat from a year ago. They had 15 wins (15!) and now with a healthy team and Dwayne Wade back they already have 12. The Hornets had a measly 18 in 2004 before drafting Chris Paul and then won 36 and last year had the second best record in the West. The 1992-93 Mavericks, who challenged for the worst record ever, didn't stay that bad forever. They went 11-71 that year, then 13-69 and then 36-46. Now look at them. Sports work in cycles. While some are up and some are down. Then they swap.

D. Basketball is the easiest sport to turn around. It can literally take one player to fix a team. The 1996-97 Spurs are the example with Tim Duncan. Before taking Duncan No. 1, San Antonio went 20-62, but then after taking Duncan, the Spurs went 56-26. Whether it's Blake Griffin, Ricky Rubio or a good free agent, this can be flipped around really quickly.

E. Nobody thought this team was going to contend this year. Sam Presti (supposedly) has a plan and he's trying to build a contender from scratch. Maybe OKC is trying to follow the Spurs' model a little too closely. As mentioned, the 1996-97 Spurs went 20-62 with two different coaches. The first was Bob Hill (who has some ties to the Thunder franchise) who went 3-15 before being canned and replaced by then general manager Gregg Popovich - which was Pop's first head coaching experience; just like Scott Brooks. Who knows - this time next year we could be talking about playoff matchups and how amazing OKC's turnaround was and how incredible this city and its fans are. It could happen. You know, the Tampa Bay Rays did go to the World Series this year...

If you're a pessimist:
A. Look at the obvious 2-24 record. The 11 straight losses at home. The highest losing margin in the league. The same problems plaguing the team. The youth and inexperience. The frustrated coaches, players and fans. Lots of reason to be discouraged.

B. What if the young players don't pan out? What if Durant is just a 20 point a game guy that never has "star" power and never can take over a game? What if Jeff Green stays inconsistent and never does better than 14 a game? What if Russell Westbrook was the wrong choice and never understands how to control himself and how to take smart shots and make good decisions? What if OKC doesn't even get the No. 1 pick next year? Even if it does, what if that pick doesn't impact the team? Can OKC stand another horrible season like this?

C. Expiring contracts. What if the wrong moves are made again? The Thunder could end up with a new team but with new contracts and the same misery. If history is any indicator, there's really not much reason to trust management so far.

D. Some say no free agent will want to play in Oklahoma City. Some say no rookie will sign to play here. What if that's true? I don't think people have such short memories to remember how much everyone talked about how wonderful OKC was three years ago when the Hornets were around, but who knows?

E. The economy. A few of the Thunder's owners have taken some hits in the market and some wonder if they will have the money to dish out to prize free agents. Though Oklahoma City has been called "the most recession proof city in the United States" by Yahoo, that doesn't mean the PBC won't be cutting back as well.

So which group do you fall in? I'm definitely in the optimist group because this is the first year in a new city with a young team. A few changes, a wise draft pick, smart offseason moves and the evolution of the young trio and this team can be much better.

Wednesday Bolts - 12.17.08

On the Basketball Jones, Skeets and Tas talk Thunder pain:


Ep. 361: Nowhere To Go But Up from The Basketball Jones on Vimeo.

• Behind the Box score from Ball Don't Lie: "All five Clippers were in double-figures, and far be it for me to slam these guys, but the only team the Clips could have beaten on Tuesday night is the Thunder. This team is fast becoming my least favorite, matching highly-paid veteran entitlement with nasty, perimeter-obsessed, lazy play. So let's briefly touch on the Thunder, who need to turn the ball over less, and have to get to the line more, and need to talk more defensively. Kevin Durant had 25 and five rebounds in 40 minutes, but he was abysmal when the ball wasn't in his hands. Chris Wilcox (13 points in 17 minutes) had a nice run in the first half, and while Earl Watson had 12 assists off the bench, I swear he's killing this team. He's one of those guys that, if he makes a nice move at half court to get into the lane with a 3-on-2, he thinks he's allowed to keep the ball and make a horrible move and miss the shot. But it's justified because of the behind-the-back move at half court. The Clippers should trade for him." Perfect analysis of Earl. Per-fect.

• Clay Bennett has been named Oklahoman of the Year by Oklahoma Today: "No one came close to Clay Bennett as we set about selecting this year’s Oklahoman of the Year,” said Louisa McCune-Elmore, Oklahoma Today editor-in-chief. "His accomplishment presents an extraordinary moment in the life of Oklahoma, probably among the most important achievements in our capital city’s history,” said McCune-Elmore.

• Thunderguru recaps last night and makes a point I particularly agree with: "It’s time to just get it out there: Brooks, take Wilkins and Petro out of the lineup. They aren’t giving you anything. Mason should have all of Wilkin’s minutes, and some combination of Wilcox, Collison and Smith can have Petro’s. If you really need a 7 footer, give Hill a shot, or get somebody up here from the D-League. It’s Petro’s 4th season now, and it’s fair to say that he can’t help this team."

• Game reaction from ClipperBlog: "Tonight’s game is far more agonizing than it needs to be, in large part because the Clippers insist on waging a perimeter battle against a team they should be exploiting inside. After a stellar first quarter during which the Clippers use Randolph down low to engage the Thunder on the block, the Clippers lull themselves to sleep with a procession of long jumpers. Al Thornton starts the trend at the outset of the second quarter when he opts to shoot over Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison — both big defenders whom Al should take off the dribble."

Another one down, 56 more to go

At this point, it's just a mental test to see if I can carry this out for the rest of the season. Because it's pretty difficult to come up with anything to say - much less interesting - when a team loses just about every night and loses because of the same reasons. But here I am and here I go:

I didn't really expect Oklahoma City (2-24) to win tonight. In fact, I saw about a 10 percent chance of it happening. But that doesn't make it any less frustrating. Things like 10 missed free throws, 20 turnovers - eight in the fourth quarter alone - and just overall poor execution can drive a fan insane, sucky team or not. All five Clipper starters scored in double figures, with the lowest man having 12. Los Angeles is playing as good as it has all season, but regardless, this was another opportunity missed. The Thunder hung around for three quarter but failed to play the fourth.

I truly think the weight of trying to over-perform is one of many ailments of this squad. The Thunder is trying so hard to win at home, to break the new losing streak, to get on track and show they really aren't this bad, that they are overthinking and overplaying. All the fans feel it - just waiting for the next thing to go wrong for the game to turn away from the team. And the team definitely feels it. I guess that kind of comes with losing 24 of your first 26. I've said it about 24 times already, but this young group just has no clue how to win.

Look, I know this is a rebuilding year and we all knew it coming in. But there's a difference between rebuilding and this. I'm not giving up though and neither is this city. We're in it for the long haul - even if the Thunder makes history in the worst way possible. We'll wear that as a badge of honor five years from now when OKC cruises into the playoffs - the ones that hung tough can say they rode the ship to the bottom of the ocean. It's definitely tough to try and make yourself care now, but hopefully a fruitful offseason will yield hope.

A few days off before the Thunder hosts Toronto on Friday night.

Need to waste a little time clicking the same button over and over?

Try ESPN's 2009 NBA Lottery Mock Draft! I know I've done it about 59 times. The last three times I ran it, OKC got the fourth pick and took James Harden. And I cried. Out loud.

It sucks that even though OKC could potentially (and realistically) go 2-79, it would still only have a 25 percent chance of winning. There should be some kind of "total and unbelievable suckage" clause that gives a team at least a 50 percent chance of winning the lottery. And also gives said team 20 or 30 million in "spending money" for the offseason. And lowers the rim to eight feet on the offensive end.

With this draft, whoever gets No. 1 takes Blake Griffin. That hasn't changed yet. But the top five changes almost every time depending on who picks where. OKC has taken Griffin every single time at one. At two, the Thunder has taken Ricky Rubio every time. When Wizards got Griffin at one and Minnesota picked second, the Wolves almost always took Hasheem Thabeet and left Rubio to OKC at three. The lowest OKC ever fell was fourth to which it took James Harden every time. Basically everyone but Minny wants Rubio at two.

A couple of oddities:
- Once, Rubio fell to OKC at four. Washington took Griffin, Minnesota took Thabeet, Indiana took Harden, and the Thunder took Rubio.
- Once, the Thunder took Thabeet at four. Washington took Griffin, Golden State took Brandon Jennings, the Clippers took Rubio and OKC took Thabeet. Which means Thabeet is in front of Harden on OKC's board.

I would say the Thunder's big board (according to Chad Ford) is:
1. Blake Griffin
2. Ricky Rubio
3. Hasheem Thabeet
4. James Harden

OKC never took a player outside of these four. Not once did it take Stephen Curry or Brandon Jennings. According to Ford, one of those four guys will be in a Thunder uniform next year.

One thing to keep in mind is the Thunder's chances of getting Griffin really don't get better with every loss. I think it's pretty clear OKC will finish with the league's worst record. The Thunder will have a 25 percent chance to get him, which is more than anyone else. So now that you've pretty much got the most ping-pong balls wrapped up, how about winning a few boys?

Clippers vs. Thunder: Pre-game primer

vs.

Los Angeles Clippers (6-17) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (2-23)
Tuesday, December 16
Ford Center
Oklahoma City, OK
7:00 CST

TV: Fox Sports Oklahoma (Cox 37)
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM)

The last time these two titanics met, the both ships were sinking fast. But a month later, one has stuck a piece of chewing gum over the hole and the other just appears to have run into another iceberg. I think you can guess which one is which.

The Clippers have patched the hole by making a few moves. They got Zach Randolph from New York and he's been awesome recently (26.0 points per game, 10.5 rebounds per game since joining LA). Since acquiring Randolph, the Clips have gone 4-4 and strung together their first back-to-back wins of the season - and they were impressive wins too over Portland and Houston. So the message is: This isn't the same Clips that came to the Ford Center and whooped Oklahoma City a month ago, basically sending P.J. Carlesimo to the bus stop.

In the first meeting between the two squads, the Thunder rolled early but failed to close out the half. The Clippers came back and then blew the doors off OKC in the second. Chris Kamen was a large part of that but he won't be playing tonight. While that's obviously nice, Chris Wilcox or no Chris Wilcox (he's out for tonight), there's probably no way OKC slows down Randolph. The hope is that Los Angeles shoots poorly from the outside and conversely, the Thunder continues to hit jump shots. Because otherwise, hello No. 24.

This is a big game for Scott Brooks. While I think it's clear that the team is more competitive under Brooks, there hasn't been any improvement in the win-loss column. And that's kind of, you know, important. A loss tonight gives him a 1-12 record as head coach - the same record Carlesimo had to which he was shown the door. It has been 44 days since OKC has won at home and the Thunder has lost 10 straight there.

I'm not sure what to expect as far as a home crowd tonight as the weather is bad in OKC and the roads are a iced over. So there may only be 10,000 on hand tonight - but hey, maybe it'll feel like a road game and the Thunder has actually played better on the road than at home.

Forget playing well in the two games in Texas. Forget how well Jeff Green and Kevin Durant played. It's freaking time to win at home. It's no secret that OKC fans are getting very restless. It was obvious the team would struggle before the season, but there's no reason for this. The Clippers are playing as good as they have this year, but they're still beatable. But heck, I've said that before and OKC has choked one away. Russell Westbrook, Durant and Green must play well together and the supporting cast has to chip in. It's the only way. The Thunder has to play a complete game in every way. That's what its come to - a complete, great effort to beat a 6-17 team at home. But reality is real. And the reality is this team is no good and these fans desperately need a win.

Tuesday's Five

1. Currently, the Thunder are 1-11 under interim head coach Scott Brooks. Former head man P.J. Carlesimo was canned with a 1-12 record under his belt. Tonight's game against the Clippers just became huge!

2. During Oklahoma City's two game swing in Texas, The Thunder shot 48.8 percent from the field and 89.6 percent from the free throw line - 4.5 and 13.1 percentage points higher than their season average.

3. Since Brooks has taken over, Jeff Green is averaging 17.5 a game compared to 13.7 under Carlesimo. Kevin Durant is averaging 25.1 compared to 21.2. While scoring is up, defense is down.

4. OKC's next ten games are against opponents that are a combined 118-119. Five of those teams have winning records and are a combined 80-39 (Cleveland 20-4, Denver 17-7, Phoenix 15-10, Detroit 15-9, Atlanta 13-9). The remaining five are 38-80 (LA Clippers 6-17, Toronto 10-14, Washington 4-18, Golden State 7-18, New York 11-13).

5. Kevin Durant is leading the team in turnovers per game with 3.1 giveaways. My guess is over half those turns came because he was bumped on a drive and lost control. He has to get stronger with the ball and just stronger in general.

Tuesday Bolts - 12.16.08

• Robert Kleeman on Bleacher Report about OKC's Texas two-step: "The undisputed worst team in the NBA keeps piling on its already ugly loss total. But two courageous, gritty, and competitive showings this weekend in Texas should give already aching fans a reason to cheer. The Oklahoma City Thunder headed to Texas for games against the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs with a gruesome 2-20 record. The league's newest franchise, uprooted from its former home of 41 years in Seattle, arrived in the Lone Star State with a chance to compile the worst record in NBA history, and that's how the Spurs and Mavericks played them."

• OKC is leading something so far, and that's the Ping-Pong Derby: "Each ping pong ball represents a 1% chance of the team winning the top overall pick in the June draft as of today. Oklahoma City -- challenging for the worst record in NBA history -- has a clear advantage in the Derby after 26 games. But Washington and Minnesota have been just awful enough to remain within spitting distance of the true bottom."

• Joe from Thunderguru sees some irony in the switch from P.J.'s "defense" to Scotty's offense: "When the Thunder opened the season with the same lineup as we currently have now, then coach P.J.’s chosen style of play was an up tempo pace, with a constant barrage of jump shots. There was little movement in the offense, usually just an attempt to get off a shot before the opponent defense was set. If the defense got set, another Thunder player would usually come over and set a pick, giving the ball handler a bit more room to launch a jumper. That was about it. P.J. meshed this offense (or lack thereof) with a fairly decent gimmicky defense that used a lot of zone in different incarnations."

• While the Thunder may have fallen out of relevancy as a team, a few players are becoming very relevant to fantasy owners: "The big two on the team are obviously Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. They are somewhat similar players — long, athletic and dripping with talent. Right now, Durant is the better fantasy player but Green isn’t too far behind. Durant is the better scorer and has better percentage but Green gets more rebounds, assists and steals."

• Joe Smith has been everywhere man: "Joe Smith has traveled so many places he could give Johnny Cash a run for his money. If only Smith could remember his NBA stops as clearly as the late great country music star could rattle off everywhere he’s been."

• Chris Wilcox is a game-time decision tonight: Forward Chris Wilcox said he is ready to play tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers, five days before the earliest possible return date the team gave in its initial 10-14 day recovery timetable from a dislocated left ring finger.