Magic overwhelms undermanned Thunder

BOX SCORE

As Oklahoma City fought its way back to respectability in the third quarter against the Orlando Magic, I wondered, "Is this the Magic just going through the motions or are the Thunder playing their hearts out again like in Utah?"

I think the answer is a little of both.

Orlando had no need to keep up the intensity with a 30 point cushion, but some teams quit when down like that. The Thunder didn't. They used the little light the Magic gave them and capitalized, outscoring Orlando 29-16 in the third cutting the Magic lead to 16. Orlando put up 71 points in the first half but then just 38 in the second. Of course, it wasn't enough as the Magic (5-3) thumped the Thunder (1-7) 109-92 Wednesday night.

But about four minutes into the game it was clear: Oklahoma City was not going to win the game. Some may have figured that out before the game even started with Kevin Durant sitting this one out with a sore ankle.

This was just an absolute mismatch. An absolute recipe for disaster. Dwight Howard doesn't let anyone in his lane and if they happen sneak in, he promptly throws their shot into the second row. The Thunder stinks at shooting jumpers. I think you can put two and two together there. And on top of it Orlando's big man was unstoppable offensively too. Just check out Howard's stat line - 30 points, 19 rebounds and 10 blocks. Yeah, pretty good game.

Nothing to really second guess or breakdown tonight. OKC was just overmatched in every way. Of all the games to miss, this may have been the worst one for Durant, because he's really the one guy that can hit a consistent jumper.


A new-look Robert Swift actually played Howard relatively well. Swift blocked him twice and "sort" of slowed him down. Swift entered earlier (about eight minutes left in the first) and played his most minutes (18), pulling down seven boards and netting three. In a way, Big Robert's haircut might have been the highlight of the night.

Potential reasons Big Rob cut his do:
- Somebody on the canal mistook him for Ronald McDonald
- He kept getting it caught in the rim.
- He thought a haircut might help his image.
- Too many people were getting him confused with a mascot.
- He felt it was affecting his upside.
- He actually saw himself in a mirror.

Jeff Green did his darndest to pick up the slack for Durant as Green had 25 and 10. And he kept up the good three point shooting hitting three of six. Maybe he's coming around. I hate to be the "next year" guy, but if he's starting to get it and Durant is moving forward, then things may really start to look up soon.

Russell Westbrook went 3-19 from the field but actually played better than those numbers indicate. I counted at least three shots that were tossed by Howard. So I guess, "potentially" those could have went in. But he made some nice passes in the lane once he figured out he couldn't score over Superman. And how freakishly athletic is Westbrook? He really can go up with anyone. He has the ability. He just needs to put it together and he could be special.

And is it just me, or does Desmond Mason fade on every single jumpshot? I'm no jumpshot technique expert, but maybe that's why he struggles so much with the jay. Maybe.

When teams are as young and inexperienced as the Thunder, games like this can potentially happen every night. Things start to snowball, you get overwhelmed by the other teams sheer talent and you're in a 20 point hole before you know you tipped off. But the bright side is with a team this young and inexperienced, improvement happens at a rapid rate so by the end of the year these guys may be totally different than this. They'll limit the hurried bad shots. Limit the dumb transition turnovers. Limit the feeble shots into the chest of the best shot blocker in the world.

Tomorrow off and then to the east coast for a couple games starting with the Running D'Antoni's as OKC takes on the Knicks (5-3) Friday night in Madison Square Garden.

Orlando Magic vs. Thunder: Pre-game primer

vs.

Orlando Magic (4-3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (1-6)
Wednesday, November 12
Ford Center
Oklahoma City, OK
7:00 PM CST

TV: Fox Sports Oklahoma (Cox 37, HD 722)
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM)

Game thread
NBA.com preview

Oklahoma City returns home tonight to take on another singular nickname team, the Orlando Magic. The matchup problems are obvious - who is going to defend Dwight Howard?

Howard is an absolute animal in the paint and on the glass. With really the best guy that can match him physically and athletically out (Chris Wilcox) someone will have to fill that void. Nick Collison? Nah. Johan Petro? No thanks. Robert Swift? Yes sir.

Who knows if The Robert can defend Howard. Swift is no one near as athletic as Howard and probably not as strong. But Swift does have a size advantage and honestly, this is a great opportunity to show what the big guy can do and where he's at physically. Expect more minutes from him - I'm guessing about 20-25.

And let me tell you something about The Robert - I hope he turns out to be a star because I desperately want him to be my favorite player. There's nothing more that would satisfy my soul than to strut with a "Swift 31" jersey on my back. But if he doesn't pan out, a "Swift 31" is likely to be headed straight to the Straight Cash Homey Hall of Fame.

In order to win... the Thunder will have to contain Howard and keep him off the glass - as much as possible. Kevin Durant lit the scoreboard for 37 Monday night, but hasn't scored more than 20 at home. Hopefully, feeling a little bit of momentum from Monday, Durant can light the lamp like OG&E. But while KD scoring a bunch of points is needed for a win, he has to get some support from someone. Whether that's Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook or someone else, somebody has to provide some supplementary scoring.

Here's some perfect analysis from Third Quarter Collapse: "The Magic might be able to let Durant go off. They have no other reliable scorers. Of course, speedy rookie point guard Russell Westbrook is the sort of player who would light-up the Magic in the past, but he's shooting poorly (32.4% from the field) to start the season. However, he seems to be the most likely Thunder player, other than Durant, to have a monster game. I'm afraid that speaks more to the Thunder's talent than to the Magic's defense, however."

Tonight, the goal should be win or lose, four quarters of consistent basketball. No five minute stretch of no field goals and 10 consecutive missed shots. No 13-0 run for the Magic. No collapse in the final three minutes if the game is within reach. Focus on playing a full 48 and if you still lose, that's alright, Orlando is a pretty darn good club. I know some think moral victories are dumb, but learning to win is something every team has to do. For a squad as young as the Thunder, you build from the ground up and you better take something with you every night.

Thundercast - #1

Joe (Thunderguru.com) and I decided to try our hand at the other medium of sports blogs - podcasting. We're not professionals and don't claim to be slick on the mic, but it was fun to put together and try out. If it's a hit, we'll definitely do more. But keep in mind, this is the first one so it may be a little rough around the edges. And also, keep in mind we recorded Tuesday, November 11, so anything referred to as "tomorrow" or "last night" should be considered from there. Also, feel free to email questions or post questions in the comments and Joe and I would love to answer some in the next podcast.

In today's episode:
- Discussion of what went right and what went wrong Monday night's loss in Indiana
- Breakdown of the Thunder's offensive struggles
- Should Russell Westbrook be starting?
- The potential impact of Robert Swift

Wednesday Bolts - 11.12.08

• Vote your favorite Thunder players to the All-Star team: Oklahoma City has three players on the ballot - Kevin Durant, Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison.

• Oklahoma City has to get a new court: "Connor Sport Court International built the current Ford Center floor with 3-point lines one foot short of the NBA’s 23-feet, 9-inch standards. The $110,000 court arrived late last month and had to be sanded and repainted days before the Thunder’s Oct. 29 opener. The new court, being constructed in Michigan at no charge to the team or Oklahoma City, will be slightly longer on both ends to better fit the Ford Center.

• An article from Bleacher Report wonders if Kevin Durant is future MVP material: "If Durant can improve on his rebounding and defense (of which he has none) then he of course has a chance to win the Maurice Podoloff trophy. Unfortunately for Durant, so does everyone else in the league. Kobe Bryant spent 10 years ripping nets and balls from defenders' grasps before capturing his first MVP hardware in 2007-2008."

• ESPN's David Thorpe has Russell Westbrook at No. 14 in his rookie rankings: "The good news about this jet of an athlete is that he makes his team better, taking good shots (good shots have a better chance of being rebounded by a teammate than a bad shot), making easy passes and playing good defense. The bad news is that he's a poor finisher around the rim and still is not a good perimeter shooter. But if he was a stock on the market, I'd be a big-time buyer. I think the game will slow down for him, especially on drives, and he'll learn to be a much better scorer."

• Thunderguru Joe has some thoughts on the poor shooting too (it's a really great read and I highly recommend checking it out): "The Thunder just love to shoot the jump shot. I thought when I began looking into the numbers that I would find the Thunder as one of the teams with the highest number of jump shots as compared to the total of all their shots. Surprisingly I was wrong. The Thunder actually shoot 63% of their total shots in what is considered “long” or outside of the paint; those shots from about 15 feet on out. 63% is smack in the middle of the NBA. Many teams actually take quite a few more than the Thunder like Toronto (78%) or the New Orleans (74%), but the Thunder are just about the average on long jump shots. The problem is that the Thunder shoot them really poorly. On those longer jump shots, the Thunder shoot them at an effective field goal rate of .346. In perspective, that means that they miss just about 65 out of every 100 that they take. That’s just dandy if it were a baseball batting average, but with a jump shot, a staple of the game, .346 puts them in some bad company."

• Pro Basketball News' power rankings: "Kevin Durant has grown into his frame and is taking smarter shots, making him an unstoppable scorer in just his second season. He's going to go on to do special things, and figures to become even more effective when the core around him strengthens, allowing him to be more selective."

• Tom Ziller from Fanhouse was impressed by KD Monday night: "Same story, second verse: Kevin Durant is back at it, taking the lion's share of all the Thunder's shot attempts. The Un-Sonics rolled into Indiana for a cross-conference affair, and Durant proceeded to yoke up 27 FGAs and nine free throws. KD came down with a somewhat efficient 37 points, a big total that just wasn't enough to pull out a win. (Surprisingly story, that.) Just as encouraging? Three blocks and eight rebounds for Durant. KD isn't going to be a perennial All-Star at the two. He'll be making his case for greatness at a forward position. So even if P.J. Carlesimo straps him to the backcourt, it's encouraging to see him branch out and maximize his physical potential."

Solving Oklahoma City's shooting woes

The season is young, but there's no hiding the fact that the Oklahoma City offense has struggled. Last night against the Pacers, the offense broke out a bit with 51 first half points (season high) and 97 points, but still shot only 38 percent from the field. The 97 points matches the highest total of the season and is only the second time in seven games the Thunder has topped 90.

Currently, the Thunder sits second to last in points per game (88.0) and dead last field goal percentage (40.4).

So what's the deal? Why isn't OKC scoring more and shooting better?

Brilliant, captain obvious answer: They aren’t good shooters.

The best teams know their strengths and weaknesses. A definite weakness for OKC is jump shooting. Other than Kevin Durant, there’s really no consistent jump shooter. Jeff Green has shot the ball from the outside a little better, but he’s not consistent. Earl Watson gets the gold star for shots that make you go, “That better effing go in. You just don’t take that only three seconds into the shot clock unless you make it. Which you didn’t.”

Compare OKC to the league's best shooting team, the Phoenix Suns. Right now, the Suns are shooting over 51 percent from the field. First, it helps to have great shooters like they do. Steve Nash may be the purest shooter in the league, period. Second, it helps to have a dominant inside game with Amar'e Stoudemire and Shaquille O'Neal (especially when the bulk of those two's shots are dunks). But most, it helps to be taking efficient shots.

(Disclaimer: Here comes a bunch of numbers.)

Through seven games, Oklahoma City is shooting an embarrassing 30.8 percent on jumpshots (118 for 383). That's not good. For a comparison, the Suns are shooting 42 percent on jumpers and the league's second best shooting team, the Utah Jazz, are at 48.5 percent. So that's one aspect - OKC really just can't hit a jumper with much regularity.

But what about the shots you’re supposed to make? The ones NBA players should be able to complete at a high rate? Well, the Suns are shooting over 72 percent on high percentage shots (layups and dunks), the Jazz 64.3 percent and the Thunder 59.9 percent. Not too bad, but not that great considering how poor OKC shoots the jay.

But here's where it gets a little revealing - Oklahoma City is averaging 28.8 high percentage shots (HP) per game, while taking 54.7 jumpshots per game. It’s starting to make sense why they only shoot 40 percent. Phoenix takes just 22.8 high percentage shots a game (remember, making 72 percent of them), but also takes 47 jumpers per game. Utah takes 31.3 HP shots per game and 46.6 jumpers. So OKC is taking about seven or eight more low percentage shots a game than the two best shooting teams in the league. (A few more stats just because I spent the time calculating them: 32.2 percent of the Suns’ shots are HP, 40.1 percent for the Jazz and 34.5 percent for OKC.)

Phoenix converts such a high rate of their HP shots, meaning their high percent tries are typically better looks or they just plain have another dimension other than taking the jumper, whereas OKC does not. Both the Suns and the Jazz have post players that can cause defenses to sink into the lane a bit. Both have post players that can draw double-teams and open up wide-open kickouts. Right now, the Thunder has none of that. I don't have the stat, but I would guess that guard Russell Westbrook has provided a substantial portion of the layup or dunk attempts.

Enter Robert Swift. As solid as he's played in super limited minutes in two games, he gives us hope. Current starting center Johan Petro prefers to play outside of the lane and shoot 16 footers. Nick Collison shoots a lot of jumpers and gets most his points in the lane from put-backs. Swift is a true seven-foot post player with great hands and a solid inside game. If he can get healthy and get in solid game-shape, he could be something that helps this offense. OKC can dump to the post, kick out and shoot. Or Swift could potentially score from there.

The Thunder's offense has been simple thus far: Set an on-the-ball screen, roll off; if the shot isn't there, repeat. Or pass to Kevin Durant and hope he nails an 18-footer over and outstretched defender. There's not a lot of ball movement. There's rarely more than four passes. There's not much slashing and penetrating. There's not much motion or rotation. All symptoms of a poor scoring team.

Also, the Suns average 71 shots per game. Oklahoma City averages 83. And that's the fast, free-wheeling Suns we're talking about. But the fact is, Phoenix is much more selective and takes higher percentage shots. The Hornets take 76 per game, Utah 78 and the Lakers 81. One guess as to why OKC is taking so many more shots is the fact that its played from behind in all but two games and has been trying to catch up, therefore hoisting shots earlier in the shot clock. The Thunder takes 44 percent of their shots 10 seconds or less into the shot clock. That sounds like there’s a lot of “settling for a jumper.” (Likewise, the Suns are taking 31 percent 10 seconds or less in and the Jazz 34 percent.)

I really have no idea what we learned here today other than obviously, teams shoot better when dunking or laying it in. So when you shoot just 30.8 percent when pulling up outside the lane, maybe that should tell you to take more high percentage shots. Don't settle for a 22 foot jumper six seconds into the shot clock. Utilize the post and see if it opens up more open looks. The offense isn't this bad, it's just not running like it's supposed to. Good thing there's 75 more games to figure it out.

Tuesday Bolts - 11.11.08

• Indy Cornrows on last night's game: "Me? I'm celebrating this W, warts and all. I've seen far too many games like this end up as a loss over the past two years. Nope, winning a game against a team you should beat when you play like you should lose is big for thie Pacers. Adversity impacts all 30 NBA teams and the Pacers margin for error is too slim to count Ws regardless of where the opponent sits in the standings."

• Russell Westbrook is learning how to play in crunch time, writes Darnell Mayberry: "Westbrook said after the game the minutes down the stretch taught him a valuable lesson in time of possession, when and when not to take shots and when to attack versus setting up a quality possession."It helps me a lot,” Westbrook said of his minutes down the stretch. "You get comfortable in crunch-time situations. I’m just learning each game.”'

• Kevin Durant to be in another Nike commercial: "In more of an interview type of set-up, Durant is seen dribbling a basketball while answering personal questions about his family, his favorite moments growing up, when he knew he loved the game of basketball and what he typically does before a game. "It’s something different,” Durant said. "It’s not scripted at all. Hopefully, it comes out pretty nice, and I hope everybody likes it.”' (In case you're wondering, this is the other one he was in. My quick is quicker than your quick.)

• Mike Wells from the Indianapolis Star: "On a night in which about the only thing he did wrong was make a move with the basketball that was so good he tweaked his ankle, Ford led his team to a 107-99 come-from-behind victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday at Conseco Fieldhouse. "I want the ball," Ford said. "I'm pretty sure it's going to be two people, myself or Danny (Granger with the ball). Pick and roll was something we were getting good shots off. Fortunately I was able to make some good moves and get to the basket."'

• Joe from Thunderguru recaps last night: "P.J. again went with small ball down the stretch to match Indiana’s small, fast lineup. He had Durant, Watson, Westbrook, Collison and Mason in the game to counter Indiana’s lineup of T.J.Ford, Marquis Daniels, Jarrett Jack, Danny Granger and Jeff Foster. Both teams were essentially playing two point guards, one power forward and no center. I ranted and raved in last night’s game wrap about these small ball lineups that P.J. trots out. It drives me absolutely mad. Instead of making the other team match up to us, P.J. plays the other guy’s game. Instead of putting big Rob in there, who was extremely efficient in the third, he plays small ball." (claps)

• Ball Don't Lie, Behind the Box Score: It really did come down to concentration. The Pacers were always a step behind as Oklahoma City made the extra dribble which led to the extra pass which seemed to lead to the easy lay-in or earned trip to the free throw line. Really, though, it started on offense. The Pacers would miss a runner in the lane, or a reverse, or a close attempt at a finish off an interior pass; and it would eventually lead to an advantage on the other end.

Oklahoma City fails to finish again in Indiana

BOX SCORE

With about three minutes to go in the game, and the game tied at 95-95, Thunderstruck blared throughout Conseco Fieldhouse. At that moment, I thought, "First of all, you'd think they'd pull that one from the rotation tonight with you know, the Thunder coming in and secondly, what a great lead for a story if Oklahoma City goes on a 6-0 run to put the game away here."

But it was the exact opposite. In the last three minutes, Indiana (3-3) outscored OKC 12-4 to take over and win 107-99 Monday night in front of about 100 fans. It was another late fourth quarter meltdown that just leaves a bad taste in your mouth because the opportunity was there. I hate to do the "what if?" thing, but these last two games slipped away in the final minutes and if OKC (1-6) just would have closed, it would be sitting at 3-4 and folks would be talking about the incredible progress of the team. Shame.

Regardless of the unfavorable outcome, let's talk about the Delicious one. Kevin Durant was absolutely ridiculous. He took a career high 27 field goal attempts, but it was well worth it as he hit 13 shots en route to 37 points. The jumper was falling and he was aggressive to the bucket (he was 9-9 on free throws). But he also chipped in eight huge rebounds and had a few nice defensive plays, including a block of T.J. Ford where he appeared to either levitate for a second or extend his go-go gadget arms to stuff back in Ford's face. This is the KD everyone was dreaming about. He would rise at the top of the key for a jay and as soon as the ball left his hands, you just knew it was going through. (And for anyone that watched Brian Davis and Grant Long's postgame wrap-up, yes, they said some variation of "Kevin Durant asserted himself" a total of four times in under 15 seconds. That has to be a record.) But they are right - it was great to see Durant assert himself. Durant just needed to assert himself a little more I guess. I just hope he asserts himself again in the next game.

But for some reason, he didn't really get much help from anyone else. Jeff Green started hot but cooled. He did finish with 14 points and nine boards but he had nine points at the end of the first quarter. Earl Watson had nine assists (seven at halftime) but had a terrible shooting night (2-11) scoring four. Same with Russell Westbrook as he had six on 1-10 shooting.

And for this installment of "Second Guessing the Peej," we look at leaving Earl Watson in the game to defend T.J. Ford with a 1:30 left and the Thunder in need of a big stop. Why did we draft Russell Westbrook again? For his defensive skills or something, right? First, Watson just straight up left Ford alone for an open range three that Ford of course hit for a dagger. Ford gave one of those half fakes because he was so shocked he was that open. On the ensuing possession, Ford drove right around the Earl and hit a little floater.

Then, why did Robert Swift only get 13 minutes? You know what he did just a little over a quarter? Nine points, seven boards. That's four points, one board more than Nick Collison is averaging on the season. I understand breaking in Big Robert slowly and getting him accustomed to the flow of the game again, but if this is the real deal, he needs to play. He has incredibly soft hands and great instincts. Hopefully, he's past the incredibly unlucky injury phase of his career and can move on and become a dominant big man. Just think about where he would be right now if he had played three full seasons in the paint. Probably not with the Thunder because he likely would have signed a mega-deal with some other team.

Westbrook had more time tonight, playing 26 minutes, which is good. I can't argue that he should have played more because he wasn't that productive while in. Earl had four turns, but if there was a stat for near turnovers (maybe, "Should Have A Turnover, or SHAT), Earl Watson would be the champion. I swear, there's four to five times a night where he is out of control and makes a terrible pass but it's deflected out of bounds or fortuitously tipped to a teammate. He does a decent job running the offense but sometimes it looks like he's trying to do too much. He's a solid player, but it's obvious he's just not made to be the featured point man. Westbrook has his fair share of SHATs, and really the entire team does in general, but Watson just seems to have one about every four possessions. He did have nine assists but a lot of that was because KD was knocking down a shot every time Watson passed to him.

This was a semi-bad loss tonight. Had this game not been on the road, it would have been a terrible one. Two words why: Josh McRoberts. The Duke Doughboy played 10 minutes and they weren't in mop-up time. That's how deep the Pacers had to go. Troy Murphy got sick. Rasho Nesterovic and Mike Dunleavy Jr. were already out with injuries. Danny Granger was in foul trouble. If McRoberts had gone down, I guess either Larry Legend was going to have to throw on a jersey or someone was going to have to call Rik Smits. This was a missed opportunity. Durant was as good as it gets, but just didn't get much help.

Like I said last night, I think it's clear the team is turning the page. This was the best first half of the season (51 points) and OKC had built a 15 point lead in the second quarter before letting Indiana rip off 13. But that happens in the NBA. It's a game of runs. But regardless, it's encouraging to see OKC not dig itself in a whole only to have to fight out of it in the second half.

Just like we talked about last night, winning is a process. Tonight, it was failing to get the big stop and then going cold on the offensive end. You can visibly see the team tense up during those big possessions down the stretch. There's a lot of forcing the action, a lot of double-pumps and a lot of second guessing. OKC plays best when its loose and a little wild. When they tighten up and try to force it, typically its a bad outcome. But like I said, it's just part of it. When they learn how to finish, stay loose in crunch-time and run solid half-court sets, these types of games are wins.

OKC gets tomorrow off before hosting the Orlando Magic (4-3) Wednesday night at the Ford Center.